MCL analysis at 9 October 2018 ( automatic translation)
MCL started off at a small trot, heavily influenced by the inadequacy of Migration and “steps”.
We have had new registrations but active participation remains poor.
MCL for the strictly scientific profile remains “Experimental research”.
We had some controversy for the non-more-active Map with the dots corresponding to the Signalers: this was decided because of violation of privacy by occasional “shooters” crowded around the “kissed” by the “step”. We are proceeding to correct to give “live” visibility to the “Guidelines” of the second step as they develop during the day: no more precise localization of the Signaler’s position, but grouping within a radius of about 20 km. There may be errors of representation like “shot at sea” but we invite everyone to be tolerant: the idea of the highlighted Director will be there and can give a correct “live” indication of the intensity on those “migratory routes”. This setting should be active as of Wednesday 10 pv.
The migration of this first part of October 2013 was decidedly poorly conditioned by unstable weather conditions, also variable with varying intensity of phenomena both in distant areas of origin and in Italy at various latitudes and longitudes.
Here the global numbers 2018 and in brackets the comparison with last year.
Sightings 230 (805)
Colombacci 6555 (32.802)
Height -media- 70m (77m)
We have more completeness of Signaling on the trans-Apennine directives up to the terminals Populonia, Argentario, Corsica. The connection with the information updated daily on the Regional Forums is very active. We remind everyone to start collecting the entrails of the doves killed for the study of Parasites.
https://www.ilcolombaccio.it/CMS/parassiti/
As highlighted several times in the last year of 2017, the month of October was characterized by an almost permanent corridor of High Pressures from the areas of North-Eastern and Eastern origin down along the whole of Central Europe up to the Mediterranean area (including Italy) and the Peninsula Iberica. All this has given permanent status of ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY, without large or widespread turbulences (see pages 193-195 of the book “The autumn migration of the Colombaccio in Italy” Ed. Aracne Editrice – Rome)
https://www.ilcolombaccio.it/CMS/il-libro-come-acquistarlo-precisazioni/
This year 2018 was not the case, but even the high pressure areas / corridors found themselves surrounded all over Europe by low pressure core variables also in terms of areas with cyclonic circulation and burdened by the transition from West to East of perturbations, also locally violent. All this has determined almost permanent and widespread conditions of TURBULENCE. ATMOSPHERIC.
Faith – in our area – extreme events such as 7 tornadoes / tornadoes occurred Sunday 7 along our Mediterranean coasts. Also on Monday morning 8 it was enough to look at the upward evolution of the coastal mists and even more valleys, to realize the variable diffusion of these turbulences both transversal to the ridges and ascensional (orographic effects). Therefore, the absence of stable isobaric corridors as preferential for fly-flying migrators such as the Colombacci (energy saving).
It is very likely that this atmospheric condition, more or less widespread throughout Europe and the Western Palaearctic, has been decisive in limiting migratory departures – and this has been valid for all migratory species – in the context of complex sensitive migratory ecology (biological and abiotic factors, including conditions of forests and intensive agricultural cultures)), while recognizing in these conditions the forces of stimulus to the first movements (see Mesola 6 October) which are sporadically occurring.
It is worth emphasizing the data of Falsterbo Sweden:
this year 2018, 52570 transits up to 8 Oct with respect to the multi-year average of 295,000, and even more specifically with respect to 3-4-5 Oct. 2016 with 263,900.
Ultimately, the conditions of widespread atmospheric instability have induced the Migrators to delay the departures: they have biological anatomo-functional sensitive capacities able to synthesize all the various factors that can / must favor the migratory effort that awaits them.
For us – even less given the evolution of Research – all this remains a mystery, for them not.
Forecast ( Meteo )
As has been anticipated in previous forecasts (Colombaccio Scientifico, Forum) after 10 October conditions of High Highest Atmospheric Pressure should be established (over 1030 hPa) which from the area of origin are extended with isobars fixed at 1020 hPa up to the Balkans (Istria included from 10 to 14 Oct.) and Italy (Porta Orientale of Italy)
http://www.eurometeo.com/italian/gfs-wz/jump_SLP,G500,T500-ripilogo%209%20giorni-00
If this isobaric corridor will remain strong without interferences by west storms , the full migration will start by waves and peaks as in
THE RING 40 (2018) 1..0.1515./ring-2018-0001
THE GENERAL PATTERN OF SEASONAL DYNAMICS OF THE AUTUMN MIGRATION OF THE WOOD PIGEON COLUMBA PALUMBUS IN ITALY
Enrico Cavina, Rinaldo Bucchi and Przemysław Busse